Don’t panic, but an asteroid has a 1.9% chance of hitting Earth in 2032 (arstechnica.com)
from threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works to astronomy@mander.xyz on 07 Feb 2025 06:02
https://sh.itjust.works/post/32371536

#astronomy

threaded - newest

MrTrono@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 06:06 next collapse

Am I supposed to panic because it’s unlikely to hit? Meanwhile I’m out here wishing for death by meteor.

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 06:14 next collapse

Just in case this comment is not a joke, here’s the WHO page on suicide prevention.

Either way, there are a few billion other people on this planet who would rather not die by meteor, thank you very much.

PhobosAnomaly@feddit.uk on 07 Feb 2025 06:48 collapse

I mean, if I was going to go out, then getting my shit mixed by a meteor is pretty awesome. I’m sure I’ll make it on to a few Buzzfeed articles over the next ten or twenty years.

All things considered though, it would indeed be nice if it landed somewhere inconsequential like the ocean; the desert; or Florida.

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 07:27 next collapse

Florida

You jest, but the Kennedy Space Center is in Florida. Putting the world’s busiest spaceport out of commission might put a damper on future asteroid deflection missions…

grue@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 11:35 collapse

Eh, they can launch from Vandenburg if it’s that important. (Or, ya know, Guiana or Baikonur or whatever.)

Mirshe@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 16:50 collapse

Assuming any foreign space agency will work with NASA now…

murmelade@lemmy.ml on 07 Feb 2025 18:40 next collapse

Hell yeah this would be my choice too on preferred way to die. There’s something beautifully deterministic about it, a random space rock flying around for millions of years and all my lifes choices and circumstances ending up in standing on the exact spot the meteorite ends its journey. Right in my head. Lovely.

ShaggySnacks@lemmy.myserv.one on 08 Feb 2025 00:49 collapse

What about hitting the Republican National Convention?

lordnikon@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 06:14 next collapse

Not to be a doomer but most of us will be dead by then I just hope the meteor takes out any lucky oligarchs still alive in a bunker.

Omgpwnies@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 18:02 collapse

You think “most of us” will be dead in … 7 years? That’s pretty doomer if you ask me.

lordnikon@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 18:46 next collapse

I just read the ipcc reports and if you read those and don’t start a bucket list for the time we have left. I don’t know what to tell you. Trust me I don’t want to be this way I will fight where I can but I’m going to live my life the same time way a terminal patient lives. Cherish the days we got and if I’m wrong I will eat crow happily with a big smile on my face.

llamacoffee@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 17:33 collapse

Very doomer. Does lemmy have a “remind me in 7 years” bot? 😅

LouNeko@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 07:33 collapse

Yeah I’ll take one for the team. I go to the point of impact and when it finaly hits, I’m gonna try to punch it back into orbit.

You don’t have to thank me.

joelfromaus@aussie.zone on 08 Feb 2025 03:17 next collapse

Honestly, at this point, there might be enough of us volunteering to bounce that fucker back to Jupiter. A lot of us will be turned into jam but I think it’s worth the sacrifice.

MrTrono@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 16:30 collapse

But I’m on team meteor

oleorun@real.lemmy.fan on 07 Feb 2025 06:10 next collapse

Eh, Paradise and Silo got me ready for the future.

adarza@lemmy.ca on 07 Feb 2025 06:16 next collapse

is there any way to hurry it along?

parpol@programming.dev on 07 Feb 2025 06:34 next collapse

To people having panic attacks, it is not large enough to destroy the earth, and we would have plenty of time to evacuate the impact location. Though let’s hope it isn’t anywhere with permafrost.

Jimmycakes@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 06:39 next collapse

You mean populate the impact zone because I’m going to watch

hungprocess@lemmy.sdf.org on 07 Feb 2025 07:33 next collapse
SARGE@startrek.website on 07 Feb 2025 14:56 collapse

Yeah, my dogs will be gone by then so I would absolutely set up a tent close enough to catch it. I’d even bring a baseball glove for shits and giggles.

taiyang@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 07:41 next collapse

Aw, you think we’ll still have permafrost by then.

photonic_sorcerer@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 13:28 next collapse

It’ll be an equatorial impact.

SuperSaiyanSwag@lemmy.zip on 07 Feb 2025 21:47 collapse

Well that’s disappointing

expatriado@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 06:38 next collapse

that was Trump chances in 2016…

TheObviousSolution@kbin.melroy.org on 07 Feb 2025 06:48 next collapse

Those are better odds than the lottery. Has anyone set up a betting pool yet?

Floshie@lemmy.blahaj.zone on 07 Feb 2025 06:50 next collapse

should I mention “don’t look up” ?

solsangraal@lemmy.zip on 07 Feb 2025 06:59 next collapse

i don’t like those odds. anything we can do to bump it up to around 75%-100%?

Chakravanti@monero.town on 07 Feb 2025 13:06 next collapse

Sync Earth’s magnetic union of it’s core a bit finer and it will do exactly that.

burgersc12@mander.xyz on 07 Feb 2025 13:54 collapse
chemical_cutthroat@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 07:20 next collapse

Jesus is coming back and he’s pissed

HorikBrun@kbin.earth on 07 Feb 2025 07:47 next collapse

Panic?!

You mean throw a welcome party?

vga@sopuli.xyz on 07 Feb 2025 11:05 next collapse

Can we launch a satellite at it, perhaps detonate a huge nuke on it to make that chance higher?

Wait, we could just detonate all those huge nukes here right now. Show that stupid asteroid.

rickyrigatoni@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 14:22 next collapse

Nuke the far side of the moon and plunge it into earth. Give the asteroid inadequacy issues.

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 16:52 collapse

Wouldn’t detonating on the forward side rather than the zenith side be most effective at lowering the perigee of the moon?

rickyrigatoni@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 17:15 next collapse

all i remember from my ksp days is add more struts

Krik@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 18:25 collapse

all i remember from my ksp days is add more struts boosters

Fixed it for you.

rickyrigatoni@lemm.ee on 08 Feb 2025 01:33 collapse

Alas, without the struts, the boosters shall return unto The Lord, leaving thine kerbalnauts Kerbinbound.

Comment105@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 19:52 collapse

You think humanity would be in this spot if the average person had a fucking clue whatsoever?

Rivalarrival@lemmy.today on 08 Feb 2025 02:15 collapse

Tell me you’ve never played Kerbal Space Program without telling me you’ve never played Kerbal Space Program.

SARGE@startrek.website on 07 Feb 2025 14:52 collapse

Project Sundial can still make a comeback.

casmael@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 12:34 next collapse

Okay so how big is this meteor then

everett@lemmy.ml on 07 Feb 2025 14:27 next collapse

Exactly one meteor wide. Do you need the height as well?

dellish@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 22:32 collapse

Is it meteoric?

everett@lemmy.ml on 08 Feb 2025 00:00 collapse

The meteorest.

Norgoroth@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 14:38 next collapse

130 - 400 meters

GooberEar@lemmy.wtf on 07 Feb 2025 15:58 next collapse

It’s around 1000 millimeteors

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 16:53 next collapse

Listed in the article:

Scientists estimate that 2024 YR4 is between 130 to 300 feet (40 and 90 meters) wide

spongeborgcubepants@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 18:10 next collapse

How many giraffes is it tho

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 18:52 collapse

!anythingbutmetric@discuss.tchncs.de

Comment105@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 19:51 collapse

Fuck, I was hoping for a 10-15 km wide one.

psud@aussie.zone on 08 Feb 2025 02:30 collapse

Were it to hit it would hit like a large nuke

Sterile_Technique@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 12:41 next collapse

Better late than never I guess.

<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/8f8c622f-3ea5-4541-b405-8d33f28d2708.jpeg">

Comment105@lemm.ee on 07 Feb 2025 19:49 collapse

I’m not even joking. I want this asteroid to hit our planet and make us all go the way of the dinos.

Captainautism@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 20:04 collapse

Yes, please!

Idea@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 14:02 next collapse

Scott Manley video explaining the subject

JohnDClay@sh.itjust.works on 08 Feb 2025 17:27 collapse

Great video, the probability will keep going up till it goes way down. Unless it doesn’t.

Coreidan@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 14:20 next collapse

I’ll only panic if it misses

Cform@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 15:44 next collapse

<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/ea490103-04a4-46d0-a13f-a5c09efe6c65.gif">

HappyStarDiaz@real.lemmy.fan on 07 Feb 2025 17:24 next collapse

Is there any way to speed this up

Yawweee877h444@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 19:04 next collapse

Sigh. Why can’t it be 109%

This place sucks.

psud@aussie.zone on 08 Feb 2025 02:16 collapse

It’s not big enough to fix anything. If it hits, it won’t hit America or Europe

It’s in the big nuke scale of energy, enough to do a lot of damage to a small area. Were it to hit a city, the city would need a lot of rebuilding. Were it to hit, few people would be in danger as we will have years of warning. The only people in the impact area would be “storm chasers” travelling to see the impact

InFerNo@lemmy.ml on 07 Feb 2025 19:19 next collapse

If we are able to nudge an asteroid, would an asteroid of this size nudge the earth?

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 19:30 collapse

Technically the solar system is a multi-body system, and everything nudges everything else, but the mass of the earth is far greater than the mass of the asteroid, to the point that it doesn’t matter.

pjwestin@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 20:09 next collapse

That’s 0.9% more than the last time I checked. I know those are still really low odds, but we can hope…

xor@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 20:27 next collapse

don’t worry, it’ll just be like a small nuke, not a planet killer… (until they update the size estimates)

psud@aussie.zone on 08 Feb 2025 02:08 next collapse

One of the things they’re doing is calculating what it’s orbit would have to be to hit the Earth, and where it would have had to have been on its last orbit to be in that orbit

So they can look at any astronomical images of that part of the sky from then and see if it’s in the right place

If they find images of the right part of the sky at the right time and the asteroid is not in it, they know it’s not on an orbit that will hit the Earth in 2032

quediuspayu@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 12 Feb 2025 20:46 collapse

I science podcast I follow already warned last week that the probability would go up at first as they narrow down its trajectory.
They gave the example of a fan closing, as it gets narrow, the earth represents a bigger percentage of the remaining fan. If you keep closing the fan the Earth eventually will fall outside the fan and the percentage drop to zero.

Unless it turns out that it is dead center.

shadowedcross@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 20:42 next collapse

<img alt="" src="https://sh.itjust.works/pictrs/image/f4965fa0-9f4c-43a6-8df3-941f6c0550e5.jpeg">

DarkFuture@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 21:38 next collapse

Panic?

I’m crossing my fingers for the wellbeing of the universe. We’re awful.

floquant@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 07 Feb 2025 22:14 collapse

Worry not, for we are insignificant to the universe.

Zacryon@feddit.org on 07 Feb 2025 23:07 collapse

Right now.

Zetta@mander.xyz on 08 Feb 2025 02:26 collapse

Forever, humanity could only ever conceivably expand so far due to the expansion of the universe, so as far as we know a still insignificant portion of the universe we could colonize.

Zacryon@feddit.org on 08 Feb 2025 14:40 collapse

Until we make some scientific breakthrough which might solve that problem. If there is any possible of course. There is so much we still don’t know.

GrumpyDuckling@sh.itjust.works on 07 Feb 2025 21:51 next collapse

I wonder if the “important” people know the chances are higher, so they’re going for broke in order to build their escape ship.

Thcdenton@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 22:35 next collapse

<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/30e041b2-9e9d-4736-a1d6-59d774a4b80e.gif">

blackstampede@sh.itjust.works on 08 Feb 2025 16:47 collapse

Unexpected Waterworld dipstick guy

Thcdenton@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 18:40 collapse

He’s my go-to for posts like these

blackstampede@sh.itjust.works on 09 Feb 2025 18:18 collapse

Underutilized meme format, honestly. It can apply to almost anything in daily life circa 2025.

cazssiew@lemmy.world on 07 Feb 2025 23:45 next collapse

<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/92801e29-c9ff-4e9f-a113-8e935b7172d9.gif">

Etterra@discuss.online on 08 Feb 2025 00:16 next collapse

I’m team asteroid.

Uranus_Hz@lemm.ee on 08 Feb 2025 00:37 next collapse

Those are rookie numbers. Gotta pump those numbers up.

Majorllama@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 02:10 next collapse

Which direction do I need to fart to up those numbers?

AbsoluteChicagoDog@lemm.ee on 08 Feb 2025 02:26 next collapse

Scientists estimate that 2024 YR4 is between 130 to 300 feet (40 and 90 meters) wide, large enough to cause localized devastation near the impact site. The asteroid responsible for the Tunguska event of 1908, which leveled some 500 square miles (1,287 square kilometers) of forest in remote Siberia, was probably about the same size.

So nothing to worry about

Xavienth@lemmygrad.ml on 08 Feb 2025 06:11 next collapse

Sarcasm?

Idk about you but if it levels 1287 km² of forest, I don’t think that would exactly be good news for a populated area. On the upper range, it could be equivalent to a 40 megatonne bomb.

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 08 Feb 2025 07:02 collapse

Provided it enters in a similarly uninhabited location.

llamacoffee@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 17:24 next collapse

Wow this is the most depressing comment section I’ve ever seen.

threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works on 09 Feb 2025 06:48 next collapse

Yeah, even for Lemmy this is bad. I hope most of them are semi-facetious?

Swedneck@discuss.tchncs.de on 09 Feb 2025 12:04 collapse

it’s just standard “haha self harm funi”, it’s so easy to post and reliably gets a few upvotes, so it’s just a kneejerk response to posts like these.

FreakinSteve@lemmy.world on 08 Feb 2025 19:00 next collapse

Can we speed that up a bit?

uxia@midwest.social on 08 Feb 2025 19:27 next collapse

Reading this headline instantly brought a huge smile to my face 😁

DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social on 09 Feb 2025 08:06 next collapse

Fucking finally goddamn

Hobbes@startrek.website on 09 Feb 2025 20:17 collapse

Is there any way to get it here sooner?