What will MS do when Linux becomes a serious threat to their monopoly ?
from Waffelson@lemmy.world to linux@lemmy.ml on 27 Aug 15:29
https://lemmy.world/post/35085077
from Waffelson@lemmy.world to linux@lemmy.ml on 27 Aug 15:29
https://lemmy.world/post/35085077
Will they lobby for laws that prohibit Linux or make it difficult to install? What actions might they take in the future?
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Well the Xbox app that suspends Windows processes is a reaction to this threat. The threat not being Linux in general but SteamOS and Proton specifically. I don’t think anyone imagined it would be gaming that would usher in the era of Linux but it does seem that that will be the case.
Their only chance there was the late 90s to early 2000s. MS is one company compared to the totality of mega corporations using Linux and MS also uses a lot of Linux. More money at play in the server market than the general desktop OS market. Linux is the server OS
The US government increasingly uses Linux. Other countries pick up Linux at a faster rate than the US. A higher percentage of people use MacOS today than 20 years ago
My expectation: nothing. At least, nothing on the OS side. I don’t think windows is very important to microsoft strategically.
Nowadays, the way to capture audiences is not so much via a proprietary OS, but via proprietary apps.
And in that sense, microsoft is proceeding exactly as expected: more and more of the windows ecosystem either exists on the web, or is available on linux and macos too.
I can see a future where windows only exists for backwards compatibility, but otherwise:
So what does microsoft need to do once windows collapses in the desktop space? Imo not much, really. Those people and companies that are tied to microsoft products will still be. Only, they might be running them on linux.
Edit to add: I am gonna place a bet that we’re gonna see an official microsoft linux distribution by the end of 2035
it never ceases to be mind boggling that IT in most institutions are still so closely married to windows when it’s clear that the landscape has changed and it makes me suspect that they will be the last bastions of windows dominance.
Active Directory is a hell of a drug, as is Group Policy
… and unfortunately so is Share Point.
Oof, yeah, sharepoint is horrible
more like a cult when you bring up heresy like SIGNIFICANTLY better tools/methodology. ie ansible or IaC
Businesses live and die by if it broke don’t fix it.
They’re still a non insignificant number of businesses using Cobol applications.
Mostly die.
i would put ruby in that category too since it now feels like a fad that i have never seen since. lol
An official Microsoft Linux distro has existed for a while now: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azure_Linux
There's more Linux than Windwoes VMs in Azure, I hear.
Fair, a desktop-oriented distro is what I meant :)
Just my guess here, but…
The desktop/laptop sort of form factor is associated in people’s minds with unlocked bootloaders. People expect to be able to install Linux on them if they want to. Tablets, game systems, and other sorts of consumer electronics, not so much. I’m thinking Microsoft will do what it can to push hardware manufacturers and the software industry as a whole more in the direction of the kinds of devices that consumers already expect to be locked down like tablets or game systems that are “streaming” game systems. And that way, the bootloader will prevent folks from switching to Linux.
Honestly, ms won’t do anything.
unofficial statement out of Microsoft have Linux VMs overtaking the Windows VMs in Azure.
Why should they worry about losing a once off $1100 sale of a Server 2025 license when they can sell you a 2 CPU 8Gb ram Azure VM for $150 a month? Or $113/m commited for 3 years ($4000 total)
Embrace, extend, extinguish.
SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.
Will it work? Maybe. They’ll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.
What do you think Ubuntu is? Microsoft’s touch in it is so obvious that only a fool would miss it.
systemd anyone?
/s
Where does LP work these days, anyway?
Desktop users (except for business) don’t make Microsoft any money, so they probably don’t care.
Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml
Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.
Hopefully people who use SecureBoot have plans in place
Hopefully!
Another funny thing is that there is speculation because firmware developers...many not actually be checking the dates at all in some cases. Cause that would mean extra work. So its very possible this date comes and goes, nothing happens to cheap devices.
That was based on conversations im seeing in other forums. Not sure honestly.
Either way, we will find out soon!
I just disabled SecureBoot on my end.
I use Secure Boot on all my machines but I just use my own keys with Foxboron’s wonderful
sbctlutility instead of the hacky shim/MOK method most distributions use.Oh, neat! I had no idea something like this existed!
Fortunately I’m safe from that bc right after I assembled my current PC (even before moving the distro to it; yes, moving, not “installing”), I entered BIOS and disabled secure boot, IPM 2.0 and pretty much everything Spyware related. Only then I booted Clonezilla and extracted from the backup image. Since I had done the same on the old PC in BIOS, that means my Arch was never installed with SB and IPM active.
On top of that the last update of BIOS nearly broke it, so I flashed it back to the more stable version the motherboard came with. And since I have no intention to update BIOS, I’m safe from all that trouble.
The question is also what would US government do. You miss the fact that windows-x86 complex is self supporting cornerstone of US soft and economic power, also spying. What will they do to prop up that monopoly?
Windows is only 12% of Microsoft’s revenue, and between Mac, Linux and ChromeOS, it really doesn’t have a monopoly anymore on desktop (about 70%). On top of that, desktop usage in general is decreasing, and is already less than 50% of all web traffic.
What I’m saying is that I think it’s safe to say something else will likely “kill” Windows long before Linux ever becomes a serious threat to it.
That may be true, but a lot of their profits build on that Windows monopoly. I wouldn’t be surprised if about 80% of their profits depend on Windows.
Do you have a source for that? This chart says otherwise:
<img alt="" src="https://startrek.website/pictrs/image/422b7d1d-22f6-44bd-a733-a37eccd60627.png">
Thanks for the chart. 👍
Tomato tomato.
I wrote profits, and from the chart you show, clearly above 50% of their revenue is from Windows and derived products.
Last I heard the profit margin for Windows and Office was around 90%, AFAIK by far the highest of the business. So I’m pretty sure that combined with Server products Search and the part of gaming that is on Windows, it will be very close to 80% of the profits.
But is that really coupled to windows? Take office for example, i think it also runs on MacOS and browsers. Why wouldnt they be able to make a Linux Version?
Some others have already said the “embrace, extend, extinguish” but here’s my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0
The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they’re giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.
Also worth noting that they own Github, which puts them in a position to disrupt a huge amount of Linux infrastructure if they ever feel like it. They might also pull some weird move like trying to buy Canonical or something like that.
This is a good point. I’ve been trying to make it clear in a lot of my predictions that Microsoft doesn’t want or even need full control, just enough. They don’t even need to do anything particular here other than continue to manage github with their current level of incompetence.
Was trying to source an article here, wasn’t there just an outage or some other major issue a few days ago? Anyways …
I think what’s missing is the author of pulseaudio and systemd among other “modern” Linux tech (I.e. adopted by many popular distros) is a Microsoft employee.
I believe they just don't care, since not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses. So as long as they sell licenses to businesses (business laptops, etc), but also GitHub Enterprise (yes, Micro$oft also owns GitHub) Microsoft earns enough money that way. And also think cloud (Azure)..
My guess is therefor that the focus on Windows isn't that big anymore. I just hope more companies and gaming devs/publishes also push native binaries towards Linux.
Agreed
I think Windows is primarily a development environment for Xbox, just as macOS is primarily a development environment for iOS Everything else of value from Microsoft is available via the web/cloud (even Office)
Eventually, Microsoft might even decide that it’s more profitable to abandon Windows completely
office 365 is a fraction of the true power of office. do not even try to compare the two.
MS hasn’t released an Office version outside 365 for 8 years.
365 is Office for them.
I’ll respect office 365 when it respects recusive power points
www.microsoft.com/en-us/…/CFQ7TTC0PBM7
I stand corrected. Thanks.
I think you’re mixing up Office 365 and Office Online.
Office 365 is a subscription for Microsoft Office that includes access to both the full, more powerful desktop Office applications and the much less powerful Office Online.
Though I don’t think it’s even called Office 365 anymore, but I don’t respect MS enough to bother to Google what they’re calling it now.
I agree
But how many paying customers need features that are not in the online/cloud versions of Office?
Sure this is a shrinking number of people?
the same could be said about libreoffice, but the only reason I gave Microsoft money for office was for dealing with specifically the edge cases where a document won’t work with other word processing programs. The browser based ms office is comparable to Google docs, usable 98% of the time.
Hear me out, this is exactly why they care. Windows as a product isn’t profitable anymore, but as a market share it is. Apple has always enjoyed their locked down ecosystem and Google is trying to completely block side loading on devices we already largely don’t have control over the bootloader. It’s no secret Microsoft has been seething with jealousy for years.
gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/…/worldwide
You’re a soulless corporate ghoul, how do you make those numbers work for you? Why do you think they have the absolute gall to tell you to throw your computer out and get one that supports TPM 2.0? Why do you think there are still so many people willing or not that will swallow that bitter pill that’s Windows 11?
I’m not trying to call you out in particular here or anything, but I think it’s foolish to assume they don’t
Yes, i bet they also think what is used by most people permeates upward i.e. if most use win as young companies will pivot to win for work.
I agree with you.
Everyone who is saying that windows isn’t profitable or no longer an important part of microsoft’s business strategy is just a parrot succumbing to the snowball effect.
When?
Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.
M$ is switching to defense and surveillance software. Once they failed to force their crap OS into the phone market, they knew their monopoly days were numbered on the PC. They are hoping to lock in devs on GitHub, but it looks like that might backfire with their overt push for CoPilot use.
How exactly do they hope to lock devs in github??? That’s absurd, there’s no way they can achieve that. I can always take my projects elsewhere and there’s nothing they can do to stop me.
Yea, but will anyone else find it?
They will, if you change the links and share them with at least your users.
If you already have a dedicated following, but the unfortunate truth is people use github for discoverability. People would need to know to look for you if you did the right thing and hosted your project somewhere where you and it won’t be exploited
I can’t tell if you’re joking? If not, what do you think “lock-in” actually means?
It doesn’t mean that it is impossible to leave, it means that there is substantial switching cost. And, that is certainly the case for github-hosted projects: all active contributors need to make a new account somewhere else, issues and discussions need to be migrated, CI workflows typically need to be rewritten, and good luck finding something that gives as much free compute for CI as github does. Yes, it’s easy to mirror a git repo onto another service, but github is much much more than just git repo hosting and each of their features have their own switching cost.
Also, OP actually said “lock devs in” rather than “lock projects in” - I actually am forced to have a github account if i want to contribute to projects which refuse to move their issues off of it 😢 … and the difficulty in creating new accounts anonymously these days prevents me from contributing to several things (lemmy, for instance) which i otherwise would.
That they’ll lock you out of your repo without access to manage it, maybe? Or threaten you to make your software inoperable in Windows, if you don’t comply? IDK, they can always think of sonething but if they think I don’t already have full copies of my projects on my computer, they’re deeply mistaken. 😂
in the computing context, “lock-in” is shorthand for vendor lock-in.
Secure boot and anti-cheat.
That not an option. If Linux is a serious threat it means that a normal people could use it without any problem, with all the common software needed (Office, a browser and few other things).
At this point trying to lock down the PC to have the be able to run Windows is not really an option, people could simply choose to not use Windows anymore and be productive anyway.
Only problem are games, but it is probably solvable
Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.
Which in the precise moment when Linux is a serious threat is not possible since there is no assurance that the hardware vendors would accept, given they now have an alternative.
They cannot do that to every manufacturer, as most of countries are incentivized to not dependent on American or any foreign product.
I can see China or European manufacturer will slowly move from Windows. At least China already learning the hard way from Android-Huawei relationship.
They’ve been busy doing that for the past 20+ years. It’s been an annoyance, but not really a deterrent.
Exactly what they’re doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.
Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they’re either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they’ve already self-selected.
Honestly fine by me. I prefer Linux remain non-mainstream. It has integrity like this. The moment any suits see dollar signs on it, it’s as good as ruined.
I’ll drink to that, my friend.
Salud, cheers, prost, l’chaim!
Linux has been becoming a “serious threat” for 20+ years now. I’ll wait.
Don’t get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.
I think that linux has a couple of things that might help it grow outside its traditional niche that it hasn’t in the past. Proton has been a major step forward in to the gaming scene. A lot of people are very unhappy about windows 11. The EU in particular is also investing in ways to get out from under American techs thumb due to the geopolitical landscape.
I don’t have too high expectations personally but who knows.
Cry maybe
Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.
Why? Office is such shit.
It is (unfortunately) their primary foothold into the market. Microsoft also knows this which is why some many other projects at Microsoft have been killed and absorbed by the Microsoft office team. They have a cannabalistic corporate culture. Its clear that at Microsoft the only threat to Microsoft… Is Microsoft… No one else on the radar registers.
That works on their version of linux.
pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.
Hear me out on this one “Microsoft Linux”
learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/wsl/
That’s just neutered Ubuntu container
Already exists as a VM option on azure
Emulation should always be Linux emulating Windows. Windows emulating Linux is just weird.
Its not emulation, it’s a Microsoft distro
Two things, I was under the impression that Azure can emulate a lot of different Linux distro. Second, I thought the hypervisor ran on cut down version of Windows server.
VMs aren’t emulation. Its a full OS running on virtual hardware. Also, yes, azure offers several distros, not just Microsoft’s.
The OS of the bare metal host shouldn’t matter much, if at all, to the guest. If you have a philosophical issue with the hypervisor running under windows I doubt you’d be using azure to begin with.
.
That makes sense. Thanks.
It’s a Linux distro that’s called Azure Linux and it looks like it’s based on Fedora if the length of package attribution is anything to go by.
Yes exactly. Embrace and extinguish has always been Microsoft’s strategy. They’ll release their own distribution and either make it slower and more complicated than Windows, so that everyone thinks Windows is the better OS, or they’ll make it a cloud OS like Chrome, requiring recurring payments to use Office 365 and everything else.
I see this as the most likely outcome as well. It’s the preferred route, seen all of the place lately. Want to privatize a public service? Cripple the public service enough to “prove it doesn’t work” to convince people privatization is the best option. I suspect most people would switch to Microsoft Linux over something “tech” sounding like Debian or Ubuntu. When the trial of their slowed down and crashy “Linux” comes to an end, Microsoft will offer an easy solution to switch back to Windows.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7lI2fyyleY&pp=ygUVZmx5dGVj…
spoiler
It’s an Apil fools video. Not real
Some people including me maybe dont want Linux to become popular.
Can we please have something in this world that isnt ruined by the general population? They already ruined the internet -
What is this argument
I think they’re saying they like Linux as it is and they don’t want it to go mainstream. Like when your favorite band gets popular and suddenly tickets cost 10x as much. So Linux will soon cost 10x its current price of free, and nobody will be able to afford it.
I mean there’s still gonna be weird linux distros where they can hide xD
Elitism and gatekeeping.
Not at all. More like not wanting to see some corporate entity start to turn it into another monetized trash heap that’s enshittified to be sold to the masses in bloated and corrupt form. There’s a legitimate argument for remaining the way it is.
bingo
Scientists really would prefer Linux to stay in the nerd realm.
Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don’t loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.
Damnit Jim I’m a doctor, not an actor
The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.
Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like… well, work.
Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.
PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more…
I feel it’s a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses… so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.
Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)… they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps… so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the “best” way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.
It’s mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.
Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.
Never say never
I think it is clear that it’s just a matter of time that a faster, more secure, free and open source operating system will win over a worse alternative.
The vast majority of desktop users don’t give two flips about security, nor freedom, they don’t even know what those things are and don’t care to be informed.
I’ve even seen a few (on reddit) asking for Linux to support giving kernel level permissions to applications, so they can play a few videogames, they are fine with having rootkits on their PC, that’s the level of “care” they have.
But that’s ok, Linux is already a de-facto “monopoly” on the server side, the most important one, it doesn’t need to win over also desktops.
They will adapt.
Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.
In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.
Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.
EEE
They are already lobbying for stupid shit, and coordinating deals with manufacturers.
I’m going to go with “nothing”. They blend their numbers but I’d be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I’d take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn’t even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I’m sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is…
MS already doesn’t have a monopoly in any meaningful sense anymore.
Windows isn’t the main way Microsoft makes money anymore anyway…
They might not make much money from windows but it’s still a very important point of control. If they control the os then they can control what’s pre-installed. They can control what office suit, cloud service, ai slop, spyware to use before any other conpetitor has a chance to advertise.
Maybe requiring locking bootloader “for safety” on desktop computers if they want to run windows 12
Not an option, at this point a somewhat big part of the people don’t want to run windows 12 so do not care.
And vendors who agree could simply see they sells down since a, at this point large enough, percentage of the buyer prefer someone who don’t agree.
Add more spyware, isn’t that the de facto mentality of Microsoft? Add more spyware so they can force you to buy more crap, al for the “greater good”. Oh yeah, and most likely try and take over secureboot with some Microsoft crap allowed only, “for to protect the children”.
I’d wager they have enough resources to stave it off for as long as possible, and when they can’t do that anymore they will have a strategy for making money off of their “services” in the linux space.
Microsoft is part of the cabal at this point. Businesses give it money because they’re expected to.
All out street warfare against Linux users! They’ll be arming their army with AI laser guided missiles! The backdoored AI drones!