Living to 120 is becoming an imaginable prospect (www.economist.com)
from L4s@lemmy.world to technology@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 08:00
https://lemmy.world/post/6085918

Living to 120 is becoming an imaginable prospect::undefined

#technology

threaded - newest

papalonian@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 08:07 next collapse

Who the hell wants to do that?

RobotToaster@mander.xyz on 01 Oct 2023 08:28 next collapse

Me

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 01 Oct 2023 08:43 next collapse

In good health obviously.

sock@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 11:18 next collapse

im imagining someone rotting from 90-120 but still conscious then making this news story

im joking tho i only read the headline

scarabic@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:07 collapse

When we can live to 150, I’ll believe we can live to 120 in good health. In reality I’m watching 80yo people around me deteriorate into shells of their former selves.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 01 Oct 2023 18:11 collapse

Sure, and 50 years ago people un their sixties looked like they just saw the grim reaper.

scarabic@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 18:53 collapse

Maybe, though I think that’s a bit overstating it. 50 years ago, leading men in romance movies were sometimes 50+

Lead, smoking, post war trauma… all less of an issue in today’s generations. What are the big longevity extenders for the next generation? I don’t think projections are very good.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 01 Oct 2023 22:22 collapse

The projection is that we’ll repair the damage regular living does to us (basically metabolism).

And I disagree with you, it will help us better than penicillin or what ever other progress that made us live longer and healthier in the past.

Most problems are based largely on aging, it’s because our body wears out. Very few people get cancers, heart attacks, alzheimers or die from simple infectious diseases in ther twenties.

The theory exists since a couple of decades and althought being challenged thoroughly no cracks has been found up to today at least, we can repair the damage done and cure ageing, and today funding is there.

On a side note, senolytics and some other first gen treatments are probable for say in ten years or earlier (some experimental stuff already exist too), if they roll back your age just by a meager 10 years when you’re 60, it’s 10 years of research and new treatments that you can have access to and so on.

scarabic@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 23:49 collapse

I see… anti aging.

Well, if that technology ever actually lands, then I agree with you, it will be momentous.

However, we’ve been 30 years away from being able to slow/stop/reverse aging for the last 30 years. It’s like fusion. It’ll be facking great if it happens, but no one should talk about it like it’s a sure thing.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 02 Oct 2023 07:05 collapse

Well 30 years ago was when it all started (basically Dr de Grey shaking up gerontology, and the subsequent book Ending Aging), and the first ten years he fought all the problems in old academia and funding research himself. The next 10 was more fighting the “deathists” and trying to get at least some seriously funded adventures on the road and now ten years after that we have bio gerontologists not only wanting to push forward but they also can without jeopardizing their careers, lots of well funded biotech startups (rich people did finally get it) and the first treatments (Dasatinib + Quercetin was the first one IIRC, which can be had over the counter. It’s a senolytic and removes senescent cells) actually exists.

Now we need ways to assess the effectiveness of those treatments in humans (better ways than trying and waiting for 30 years), and see if they actually do rejuvenate, and that’s one another tricky question that lots of people are working on right now, so for me the future is bright.

Oha@lemmy.ohaa.xyz on 01 Oct 2023 08:48 next collapse

Me

JackGreenEarth@lemm.ee on 01 Oct 2023 10:19 next collapse

I do

Arthur_Leywin@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 11:53 collapse

Why?

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 12:29 next collapse

I would want to too, but not on this planet with these people and the very uncertain future.

Why? There’s so much to experience! If I could stay healthy, age more slowly or not at all, it would be great to try and experience as many good things as possible.

Arthur_Leywin@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 14:13 collapse

Oh you were talking about living longer if you were in a utopia or something close to it. Ok yeah I agree with you there, but unfortunately that’s not reality xD

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 14:32 collapse

I doesn’t have to be a utopia, it just has to be better than this.

And just in case you didn’t know, aging has been reversed in mice and the existence of biologically “immortal” species (“immortal” jellyfish) means it’s possible to achieve the same in humans.

ViciousTangerine@lemmings.world on 01 Oct 2023 15:13 collapse

It’s hypothetically possible that we could hack biology enough to become functionally immortal, but do you really want that? Considering the impact 90 year old Senators are having I’m just imagining an ever more out of touch gerantocracy. Imagine young people being born into a world where no one ever retires or dies, and their opinions are fixed based on what they experienced 100 years ago. Change is good.

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 21:32 collapse

Change is good indeed. Maybe if people didn’t think “eh, I can fuck up the world as I won’t be alive to live with the results” they might care a little more. Also, if were able functionally immortal, traveling to a new star system would be well within our possibilities.

scarabic@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:10 next collapse

I think people are confusing “people want to live to 120” with “people want to be 120.”

Actually being 120 would probably be awful. But seeing the year 2130 might be truly wild. On a basic level, it’s the same as wanting to live to see tomorrow.

What age do you want to die at?

Arthur_Leywin@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:26 next collapse

The age where I can no longer do things that I like to do, code and workout.

Darthjaffacake@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 17:14 collapse

This is actually a really interesting question, personally never. Not like heat death of the universe never but I don’t feel like there’s a point in theoretical forever young immortality where I would want to die, there’s always more shit to do and I’ve never felt like I need to up my game or something. I’m curious what you guys think though

scarabic@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 17:31 collapse

About the same. I should up my game though.

PixxlMan@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 00:15 collapse

Cause life’s nice :)

surewhynotlem@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 13:24 next collapse

Is this the sign up? I’m in

sapient_cogbag@infosec.pub on 01 Oct 2023 19:02 collapse

Me

Sibbo@sopuli.xyz on 01 Oct 2023 08:22 next collapse

How are we supposed to afford paying pensions that long if people retire before 70?

XEAL@lemm.ee on 01 Oct 2023 08:23 next collapse

That’s the neat part, you will now work until you’re 85

Che@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 01 Oct 2023 09:19 collapse

If political leaders can work into their 80s, you can also.

ram@bookwormstory.social on 01 Oct 2023 11:10 collapse

Their work amounts to sitting in a hearing non-coherent and voting yes when an aide tells you to. Real people on the other hand spend all day actively doing work for pennies.

Sheik@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 08:39 next collapse

By properly taxing companies and rich individuals? Besides, those leaving to 120 would most likely be among the richest of us. Do they really need a pension at all?

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 10:18 next collapse

That’s just not happening.

JJROKCZ@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 15:27 collapse

It should be though, we need to demand change rather than just saying “oh they’ll never do it” and giving up.

happyhippo@feddit.it on 02 Oct 2023 02:35 collapse

Sorry, but if one can dream of properly taxing companies and rich individuals, there’s plenty of other shit to fix with that money first.

Making living until 120 sustainable is not on the list, or very, very low on it.

vidarh@lemmy.stad.social on 01 Oct 2023 09:16 next collapse

By fully funding them. The return from a lifetime annuity bought at 65 is just marginally higher than a reasonable expected safe return from the same investment. (A lifetime annuity pays out on the basis that the provider needs to guarantee an income until you die, so if it returns so much that it eats too much into the capital, it’ll be unprofitable for the provider). At the margins, the expected remaining life years of someone at 65 in a developed country is long enough that you can’t safely offer that much more without eating away too much at the capital too quickly.

Che@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 01 Oct 2023 09:20 next collapse

Should have pulled themselves up by the bootstraps.

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 12:30 collapse

Universal basic income. Make work optional.

brunofin@lemm.ee on 01 Oct 2023 12:36 collapse

If work is optional then who is paying that income?

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 12:44 collapse

I would advise to look up some information yourself. You can either read about the pilots and their results or find a video if you prefer that format.

And these final things to consider:

  • optional != won’t be done
  • work isn’t just one definition: housework is unpaid for example but it is still work
  • UBI doesn’t mean all expenses are paid for, it’s “basic” - luxury goods like iPhones aren’t "basic"
  • it’s a complex issue, inform yourself with pro and contra sources
Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 01 Oct 2023 08:50 next collapse

I think the term is deathist, people believing that death is inevitable so they come up with lots of clever schemes to justify not wanting to live longer.

Ageing is just the body wearing down over time, with regular maintenance we can be healthy for however long we like to. Or until that proverbial piano drops on us.

I think it’s fantastic, ageing is the biggest risk in Alzheimer’s, in Cancer, in Dementia, Cardiovascular and lots of others… and who doesn’t want to have a youthful healthy body?

Check out sens.org if you’re interested in where science is today and what should be done tomorrow, but the first real treatments are probably around the corner already (like senolytics) so it’s quite exciting too IMO!

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 10:17 collapse

You’re making it seem like everybody wants to get that old, and it’s a no brainer. Well, it isn’t. I don’t want to live forever. Life is perfectly fine the way it is, and maybe you’re just making things worse with your fear of nature.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 01 Oct 2023 18:09 collapse

There have been studies done, and yes, people 50 years old usually say they don’t want to go over 80-90.

Surprise, the 80-90 years old wasn’t at all interested in dying.

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 05:12 collapse

No shit, nobody wants to actually go through the notion of dying? We should probably provide good counceling and prepare people for dying, instead of just getting rid of it.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 02 Oct 2023 07:08 collapse

So with some good counselling you’d be ready to die today?

What a weird take.

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 11:26 collapse

I am 33, so no. Why are you misinterpreting what I am saying intentionally?

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 02 Oct 2023 17:15 collapse

Because everything points to the fact that when you are 80, if you are in good health you don’t just like “want to die” all of a sudden.

I tried to put you in the seat of someone healthy that, according you if I understand correctly, should get some 'death counselling ’ just because of a number, not something real.

It just seems so very bizarre this whole idea of yours!

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 19:47 collapse

Well, it isn’t ‘bizarre’ and it isn’t an idea. It’s reality. You calling it ‘a number’ is the only thing that’s bizarre.

Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com on 02 Oct 2023 20:05 collapse

So if you’re 90 but jumping around like you’re 33, what should you do?

RobertOwnageJunior@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 22:23 collapse

Occupy living room and scarce ressources from young people, I suppose.

Alternatively, we could ask someone that’s 90 and feels like 30.

lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml on 01 Oct 2023 08:50 next collapse

*If you’re rich

Darthjaffacake@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 17:18 collapse

I think all the proposed medication to slow aging is cheap. Although I can unfortunately imagine some horrible world where the prices go up just because people want it and the patent stops other companies making it. (Can we just like not have patents last longer than 5 years)

Omega_Haxors@lemmy.ml on 01 Oct 2023 09:57 next collapse

I gave up on it when it turned out one of the figureheads of anti-aging researched ended up being a huge creep and everyone involved rushed to defend them. 💀 It’s like, nah if these are the kinds of people who are going to be prevalent in a post-death world, i’d rather die.

That’s not even accounting for those doing eugenics pseudoscience injecting baby penises into their faces thinking it will make them live forever. No thank you. It’s a good thing that shit has a zero% chance of working and has a not-zero% chance of doing the opposite.

Psaldorn@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 10:05 next collapse

Just give me something for the pain and let me die

[deleted] on 01 Oct 2023 11:07 collapse

.

lloram239@feddit.de on 01 Oct 2023 11:25 collapse

Whatever makes you live to 120 will probably improve the quality of life at 80. And if you are bored of it, take a trip on the euthanasia coaster.

Stamets@startrek.website on 01 Oct 2023 11:09 next collapse

Bro I don’t want to live to 40… 120 is a nightmare.

jaschen@lemm.ee on 01 Oct 2023 12:27 collapse

At 45, I feel my real life began at 40 after having my kid.

gurmif@sopuli.xyz on 01 Oct 2023 22:20 collapse

At 38, I feel like my life ended at 33 when I had my first kid.

jaschen@lemm.ee on 03 Oct 2023 03:29 collapse

I completely understand you my man.

Agent641@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 11:44 next collapse

More bad news

Coach@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 11:52 next collapse

…for the ultrarich.

WheeGeetheCat@sh.itjust.works on 01 Oct 2023 20:21 collapse

Yeah the quality of my Healthcare is decreasing

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 12:31 next collapse

Oh, I do look forward to living through the climate wars and AI ascendancy. Amazing prospect.

frickineh@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:00 collapse

No shit. Depending on how things are going in the next 10-15, I might retire way early, do as much bucketlist type stuff as possible until the money runs out, and then check out early. I probably have enough to live for 5 or 10 years if I move somewhere with a lower cost of living, and better that than working until I’m 75 while the world burns.

onlinepersona@programming.dev on 01 Oct 2023 21:29 next collapse

My retirement plan is a bullet

My mantra.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 07:36 collapse

Perhaps you are half joking or not, but I used to think like this in my younger years. I spent a heck of a lot of time in my 20s and 30s doing all the bucket list stuff. Bunch of sex, drugs, traveling, wild adventures, starting a company, etc. Having gone through that I can tell you that I am much happier now than I was when I thought all those bucket list items were going to make me happy. Sure, they felt good and some were amazing, but it wears off and before you know it you’re chasing the next thing again.

A while ago I came across a nice, although a somewhat simplistic, equation that said that happiness equals the number of things you have divided by the number of things you want. I find that wanting less is a much easier route to increase that metric than getting more. Easier said than done though, but I found that silent meditation retreats do the trick for me.

frickineh@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:12 collapse

I’m 39, and my bucket list mostly involves traveling to historical sites and trying lots of different food, so I don’t think we’re particularly comparable.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 17:07 collapse

We don’t need to be compatible for the point to stand

frickineh@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 21:18 collapse

A middle aged person saying, “I would rather retire young and do things that are important to me before those things are no longer possible, instead of spending another 30 years working my ass off hoping I’m financially and physically capable of doing anything at the end and that the world isn’t literally on fire” is hardly the same as a 20-something doing a bunch of drugs, but sure. Silent mediation. That’ll solve global warming and capitalism.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 06:22 collapse

Have you ever considered asking a question or are you only just interested in misrepresenting what I said?

Pat_Riot@lemmy.today on 01 Oct 2023 12:40 next collapse

Who thinks that is even remotely desirable?

some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org on 01 Oct 2023 13:25 next collapse

After seeing my parents lose mobility as they age, I don’t know why I’d want to live even longer with a broken body.

Duranie@lemmy.film on 01 Oct 2023 13:40 next collapse

I work in hospice and see a variety of conditions. Some people in their 60’s with significant mobility issues that are chronically exhausted, but then there’s the patients in their 90’s who just recently started cutting back on social events and activities due to injury/illness.

Seeing these differences was why I started roller skating (again) at 49 and increased other activities to keep my ass moving and challenge my coordination and balance. I want to get everything I can out of this life.

maporita@unilem.org on 01 Oct 2023 14:01 collapse

You can’t control how or even if you will arrive at old age but you can swing the odds dramatically in your favor by the choices you make when you are younger. Eat healthily, avoid hard drugs and tobacco, drink alcohol only in moderation and get plenty of excercise that consists of four categories: resistance (aerobic), VO2 max (anaerobic), strength and stability.

ViciousTangerine@lemmings.world on 01 Oct 2023 15:08 next collapse

Soon it will be possible to cling to the broken shell of what you once were, a mere vessel for arthritis pain and bittersweet memories of a time when you used to be able to walk to the bathroom. Hooray!

kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 11:04 collapse

The point isn’t just extending a vegetative state but a livable state. If life expectancy expands to 85, then you live comfortably until 65 or so. That means you can more or less be physically active just fine.

Look up on Google images old grandpa bodybuilders. There are 70 year olds that are stronger than majority of young men.

If life expectancy shifts upwards to 120 presumably the age of comfort also expands to 100, or what have you. Then it’s a slow deterioration until 120 where you’re basically a zombie. Of course this age depends on genetic variables as well as your personal health decisions.

My great grandma died this year at 100 and she was only a zombie from like 95. Until that point she was walking by herself and giving speeches, hosting parties, etc. 96 she caught dengue fever and lived, but was weakened. Then she caught covid a year later and lived, but was further weakened.

The final nail in the coffin was her falling and breaking her hip in January of this year. She was dead about a month later.

Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:56 next collapse

Healthy people with good genes that have relatives who are mentally fit up to thier last days. And people who think that all the money being dumpped into longevity by billionaires will increase the amount of time people in general can maintain a decent quality of life. And then me, who is curious about how the world changes over long periods of time and just wants to be there to see it. And maybe see a breakthrough that somehow keeps us alive even longer. Death is so final.

sebinspace@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 17:07 next collapse

Average life expectancy is, what, 75 years? I’m 31, so rough estimate, I have 44 years left, and that’s not nearly enough time to conquer the galaxy

Tangent5280@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 18:26 next collapse

Your goals are both legal to aspire to, and possible.

usualsuspect191@lemmy.ca on 01 Oct 2023 20:02 next collapse

That’s life expectancy from birth. Once you’ve made it to your 30s it’s probably more like 85

vidarh@lemmy.stad.social on 01 Oct 2023 20:39 collapse

Average life expectancy in the US is ca 80, a few years above that in most of Europe, and highest in Japan, Macau, Hong Kong, at 84-85 years (this is across everyone - typically there’s a 3-4 year spread between men and women, so e.g. Hong Kong is 83.2 for men and 87.9 for women)

ozmot@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:13 next collapse

I want to live long enough to see society deteriorate into nothing more than a roaming band of cannibalistic motorcycle mutants.

kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:59 collapse

I want to live as long as possible because I want to know what humans discover. What is the fundamental nature of reality? Will we find life in the cosmos? Will we explore other planets? What is the secret behind the brain and consciousness? What maths is left to be discovered? How will human society develop? Will we fall into authoritarian surveillance states or break free into a post-scarcity classless utopia?

So many curiosities sometimes I wish I was like a vampire, just floating around the world forever seeing what happens.

ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 13:07 next collapse

Let’s see if we make life expectancy consistently go up again before we start talking about 120. I could just as easily see it fall to 60 before going up to 120.

obinice@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 14:06 next collapse

Maybe in some ultra rich country, certainly not in the declining West though.

JJROKCZ@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 14:55 next collapse

But why would you want to

MonkRome@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 18:54 next collapse

I would happily live 500 years if I could keep the quality of life prior to old age. The issue isn’t a number, it’s what your life is like in those last 20 years. I can’t imagine we will regularly get to 120 without slowing the aging process, which would improve quality of life.

JJROKCZ@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 05:15 collapse

I’ve not been enjoying the last 30 all that much, I don’t think I want another 90 or nearly that far even

MonkRome@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 22:34 collapse

I’ve enjoyed a fairly privileged life in recent years so I suppose that changes my perspective. I fully recognize that not everyone is dealt a fair hand, whether it be financial or the chemicals in ones brain. Though even when I was poor and less mentally together, I always valued a long life. There are so many interesting things in the world, I want to live long just to see what happens to humans. Will we get over our fundamental flaws as a species, will we make it to being a space faring civilization? Will we protect the environment and create artificial consciousness? Also I value new experiences and life always offers more.

arin@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 21:56 next collapse

We should just die at 30 again huh?

JJROKCZ@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 05:16 collapse

I’m 30 now, having a hard time looking at the next 40-50 and thinking I want that. Definitely not 90

arin@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 06:27 next collapse

Are you suicidal? Longer life does not mean living as a cripple, we can extend our health if we research more. And exercise and lower calorie diet seems to improve health a lot. A 70 year old who exercises and eats lightly will be healthier than a 30yr who eats like an American and drives without walking much.

kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:56 collapse

I’m close to your age and I’m excited for the next 40-50 years. It often surprises me when I get perspectives like yours. I have to remember people have different opinions on things I take for granted.

We can have a tendency to project our views onto everyone else and assume everyone thinks the same thing. False consensus effect

I think people are fundamentally different because of some stuff that happened in childhood. There are people who are negative about the past and positive about the future. I fall into this.

There are others that are positive about the past and negative about the future. Maybe you’re here.

the_third@feddit.de on 01 Oct 2023 22:12 next collapse

My dad died a few days ago. In the last months he told me more than one “I could use three lives to do all that I’m interested in”.

Siegfried@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 04:20 next collapse

I’m sorry for your loss

triclops6@lemmy.ca on 03 Oct 2023 00:50 collapse

Sorry for your loss

GamingChairModel@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 00:35 collapse

Because a world in which people live to 80 tend to live well till 65, And a world in which people can live to 120 might open up the possibility of living well to 90.

Stretching out life expectancies tends to stretch out the length of quality time too.

calypsopub@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 16:45 next collapse

Living that long would break the economy. I’m retired on a fixed income, and my planning was based on living no longer than age 90. After that, my savings will be depleted, I will live on social security alone. When I imagine young people having another 30 years to pay for social security per person, it’s just broken. We would need to work until age 95 instead of 65. What would be the point?

sebinspace@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 17:06 next collapse

Think we should moved towards post-scarcity first…

vidarh@lemmy.stad.social on 01 Oct 2023 20:36 next collapse

We would not.

The extra amount you need as life expectancy increases diminishes with each extra year. E.g. let’s assume (for each of calculation only; you can just scale it up linearly) that you need 10k/year on top of social security to live off in retirement. If your savings is 100k, and you only get a 5% return every year, you’ll run out after about 15 years. Hence a typical lifetime annuity bought at age 65 will be around that in the US because it matches up with current US life expectancy (it won’t deviate much elsewhere).

So that’s for living to roughly 80. Here’s how it’ll play out as you approach 120:

85: ~20% more 90: ~38% more 95: ~52% more 100: ~62% more 105: ~70% more 110: ~77% more 115: ~82% more 120: ~86% more

As you can see, the curve flattens out. It flattens out because you’re getting closer and closer to have sufficient money that the returns can sustain you perpetually (at a 5% return, which is pretty conservative, at $200k, you can perpetually take out $10k, and no further increase in life expectancy will change that).

Now, that of course is not in any way an insignificant increase, but if we assume 40 working years, $100k is about $850/year additional investment + compounding investment return at 5%. $186k is around $1550/year compounding.

But here’s the thing, if you work 10 years longer, you grow it disproportionately much, because you delay starting to take money out, and you need less, while you get the compounding investment return of ten more years, and that drives down the yearly savings you need to make back down to around $850/year.

So an increase of 40 years of life expectancy “just” requires 10 more years of work to fully fund it assuming the same payment in during the later years. But here’s the thing: Most people have far higher salaries towards the end of their careers, even inflation-adjusted, so most people would be able to fund 40 more years with far less than 10 extra years of work.

(Note that if you already were on track for your pensions to last you to 90, if you were pre-retirement now, you’d “only” need about 35% extra savings to have enough until 120, because you’d get returns from a higher base, so the extra savings or extra years of work needed over what you managed would be even lower)

These all work on averages btw. - due to differences in health, this is where we really want insurance/state pensions rather than relying on individual contributions.

This doesn’t mean there aren’t problems to deal with. Especially if the life expectancy grows fast enough that it “outpaces” peoples ability to adjust. But it’s thankfully not quite as bad as having to add another 30 years of work.

frezik@midwest.social on 01 Oct 2023 21:03 collapse

Most of our financial advice for retirement has a hidden assumption that there is a large number of working age people helping not just social security, but also the stock market. A standard retirement portfolio will have a mix of t-bonds, stock market holdings, and a few other sectors.

We’d be looking at a scenario where there are a lot of small investors (a few million dollars is small on this scale), but proportionately fewer workers making use of that investment.

A US Millennial working today is going to need to be a 401k millionaire to retire with something comparable to their current standard of living. Most are going to fall short of that before we even talk about adding on extra life span.

vidarh@lemmy.stad.social on 01 Oct 2023 21:29 collapse

The numbers I gave are entirely independent of social security. They presume a far below average stock market return. You’re right they’ll need to be a 401k millionaire, and per the numbers I gave, to achieve that will take around ~9k/year in pension investments if they intend to retire at 65. A lot obviously can not afford that, especially not early in their career, and will need to compensate accordingly later in their career to the extent they want.

But that wasn’t really my point. My point is that the number of extra years - irrespective of your current pension situation - you need to work in order to maintain the same financial outlook is far lower than the number of additional years of retirement you can cover. Whether or not you’re able to get to a sufficient pension level in the first place is a separate issue.

To how the stock market will fare, the big challenge there is whether or not automation will keep up or not, and frankly I think the biggest social upheaval over the next century will not be that it can’t keep up, but that automation will outpace the proportional decline in the potential labour pool.

frezik@midwest.social on 01 Oct 2023 21:51 collapse

You might want to look at the Trinity Study of retirement portfolios. The general rate of withdrawal is lower than what you’re quoting here. Closer to 4% or lower. Though this is giving way in some quarters to a sliding system, where you live it large in good return years, and frugaly in bad years.

But again, this all overlooks how that depends on a proportion of working people feeding stock market returns.

vidarh@lemmy.stad.social on 02 Oct 2023 06:14 collapse

The general rate of withdrawal need to be lower if you have a portfolio that is very conservative. That may make sense when you’re saving for you yourself and have a low risk tolerance, but it’s not needed. That people feel worried enough to do that, though, is a good argument for insurance/state run pension schemes, because they an inherently pay out more since they can smooth out the risks and pay toward the maximum averaged returns.

[deleted] on 01 Oct 2023 21:06 next collapse

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kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:51 collapse

My great grandma died at 101 earlier this year. She had ran out of money a while ago, but she had so many descendants at that point that everyone took turns caring for her. One of her daughters lived with her and the other 6~7 children all pitched in.

She never had to stay at a home. That’s a nice thing about being old as shit, assuming you had at least some children. Your descendants exponentially increase allowing you to draw money from a significant pool of people.

I flew into the country to visit her for her 100th birthday and there were almost 100 people there, majority family members.

NikkiDimes@lemmy.world on 01 Oct 2023 22:03 next collapse

Man, if only we had some sort of military funding to divert to social programs…

pdxfed@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 04:35 collapse

We spend as much as the top 10 countries combined on defense.

Infrastructure - dangerously old Healthcare - non-existent Education- death spiral Social health - All measures worse every year

Don’t know, we tried nothing and are out of ideas thanks to the vice grip of lobbies and bribes Eisehower himself warned about.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 07:24 next collapse

Maybe this is an unpopular opinion, but I don’t think working till very late age is a bad thing. I don’t expect to be sitting on my ass whole day long by the time I get to retirement age. What I do think is a bad thing is if by that time I am financially struggling to get by.

tony@lemmy.hoyle.me.uk on 02 Oct 2023 08:46 next collapse

The problem is we’re not fixing the economy at the other end. People work later because they’re healthier, and that could be good… but that means more people to do the same amount of work, increasing unemployment.

Until we stop demonising non-work and that’s going to be hell for those stuck on it. Get some level of basic income so it’s a valid choice. Meanwhile in the UK our govermnent is appealing to the boomers by announcing increased punishment of the unemployed… We’re a long way from fixing the issues.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 11:42 collapse

I don’t tend to think about the amount of work available nor the demand for the fruits of work to be fixed.

I agree with the issues you are raising.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 18:52 collapse

What happened to having hobbies? Working and languishing till death are not the only two possible options.

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 19:48 next collapse

My work is a hobby, so there’s that

calypsopub@lemmy.world on 04 Oct 2023 00:31 collapse

This. I’m already retired and I’m plenty busy doing what I like with my time.

kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:48 next collapse

Economy is about to break soon anyway. Technology increasing to a point of killing a dangerous amount of jobs combined with a declining birth rate…

We’re gonna have to do something in the next couple decades. There’s really no other option unless the elites want chaos… and they don’t.

Also, the point would be that you live longer. I know a lot of people hate their jobs but not everyone does. I wouldn’t mind getting another 30 years.

Clbull@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 13:00 collapse

I think things are gonna get really ugly in the next twenty years.

We’re nearing a point where artificial intelligence can replace a lot of white collar and logistical jobs, which would skyrocket unemployment rates and lead to widespread riots.

Don’t get me started on what a leftist pipe dream universal basic income is. The guaranteed income UBI would give would either bankrupt our economy or be such a pittance that nobody could live off of it

I did number crunching on how much it would cost to pay every UK adult a guaranteed basic income that could theoretically pay for rent in most cities outside of London, assuming £800 pcm and 50,000,000 adults. That would cost £480,000,000,000 a year, or almost 2.5 times our entire welfare budget, of which about £100b alone goes into pensions.

And before you suggest automation and wealth taxes would pay for UBI… good luck with that. We can’t even get the rich to pay their fair share of taxes right at this moment.

Given how much politicians serve the rich, I think they’d sooner sic the military on protesters than actually cave in to the demands of the masses, especially when armed drones could do a lot of the gruntwork. The wealthy don’t care if you’re destitute, starving and living on the streets.

[deleted] on 02 Oct 2023 14:14 collapse

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Powerpoint@lemmy.ca on 02 Oct 2023 14:08 collapse

Things will need to change like a guaranteed basic income. We’ve been moving towards this eventuality for the last 5 decades or so.

threeduck@aussie.zone on 01 Oct 2023 20:34 next collapse

God damn it LET ME LIVE FOREVER LET ME LIVE FOREVER LET ME LIVE FOREVER I’m sick of lying in bed every night scared of the nothingness of death

SketchySeaBeast@lemmy.ca on 01 Oct 2023 21:14 next collapse

Immortality really just means that the odds of you dying by accident becomes 100%.

threeduck@aussie.zone on 01 Oct 2023 21:29 next collapse

Not if I live in a geodesic dome sealed off from outside harms until the heat death of the universe, and hopefully by then we’ll have warmed up the universe so I can continue with immortality

kava@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:45 collapse

I’d say the probability approaches 1 but we can’t know for sure that it actually reaches 1

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 07:21 next collapse

Have a look at the seventh jhana. Maybe it’ll help.

threeduck@aussie.zone on 02 Oct 2023 21:05 collapse

seventh Jhāna, defined as infinite nothingness

😨😨😨😨

theboomr@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 07:49 next collapse

I’m with you bud :/

Apollo@sh.itjust.works on 02 Oct 2023 10:45 collapse

Man imagine how fucking boring it’d be after only a few hundred years.

Everything ends, and if it didn’t the thing in question would lose all value.

You sit awake scared of the nothingness of death, do you ever contemplate the nothingness before life? You are what the universe is doing in the here and now, like the crest of a wave in the ocean. The oceans waves, while the universe ‘peoples’.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 18:47 collapse

I will never get this attitude. If you were born in the 1800s would you call today boring? There is just so much to experience and we always have new things being invented. If I had infinite time I would still never run out of things I want to do.

That talk that “death is what makes life worth living” feels like a coping mechanism people invented to make peace with mortality. Everything that makes life worth living only happens while we are alive. The only thing that makes long lives so tragic is death itself.

Apollo@sh.itjust.works on 03 Oct 2023 10:26 next collapse

Funny, what you wrote sounds to me like a coping mechanism in itself haha.

Which is cool, like 90% of what we humans do is in some way a coping mechanism for our own mortality. We are all still going to die though, accept it or rage against it, it makes no difference in the end.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 15:36 collapse

In what way? I don’t deny that I’m going to die, I don’t think this kind of life extension medical technology will become widely available quick enough and affordably enough to help me. But I also don’t romanticize the prospect. It’s one of those common mundane tragedies that happen every day.

Frankly, sounds like you are trying to Uno Reverse Card me but I don’t even get what point you are trying to make. What, is just cherishing life a coping mechanism now?

Apollo@sh.itjust.works on 03 Oct 2023 19:50 collapse

Can a common mundane thing not still possess some beauty? And even in having beauty or not, must we judge it to be good or bad?

I’m not trying to do anything except talk shit on the internet. But yes, absolutely! It can be a coping mechanism, and there are definitely people who try to live to the fullest in the hopes that if they do it enough they’ll be able to forget their own impermanence.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 20:45 collapse

I mean, I spent most of my life trying not to die so it seems pretty bad to me. I can’t exactly contemplate it like the falling leaf. I can see what you mean by how momentous it is but even if you can find beauty in it… it’s in someone else’s. You cannot really witness your own death to regard it as beautiful or horrible or anything.

Yeah there are people who fill their lives with noise not to think about their own mortality but I don’t think that’s my case. We are talking about it right now. I don’t seek all my experiences as a checklist for death either. I won’t be the one keeping track. I won’t be the one remembering.

Death is the cessation of self, and as much as I don’t fool myself into thinking I’d be immortal, I’d like to have as lengthy a self as I am afforded. Everything I cherish, I can only do so because I am. I can’t see death as bringing meaning to anything. More like the ultimate meaninglessness. How could people define themselves by something which, as far as we understand, they won’t even get to experience themselves?

I suppose there is spiritual belief, but even then it’s ultimately unknown. However people believe they may exist past their deaths, it won’t be like this.

But really, I feel really skeptical when people talk about the beauty and meaning of death because, if they truly believed that, wouldn’t they be more proactive about it? Though that’s pretty unhealthy to consider. Far from me to convince anyone they really truly see death as so wondrous.

Apollo@sh.itjust.works on 06 Oct 2023 15:23 collapse

These things that you cherish, would you still cherish them if you knew you could have them forever and never lose them? Or would they just become permanent things you get used to being there?

Happiness is only possible thanks to the sadness that contrasts it - without the suffering, is there really pleasure?

The way I look at it, life and death cannot be seperate things because one implies the other. Death has as much meaning and beauty as say, the fact that it rains - its something that happens, no more and no less.

Buddha teaches that the self, the ego, is merely an illusion - a very fun one, it’s true, but an illusion regardless. It’s the ego that attaches judgement to things, and this attachment is what leads to suffering. Someone who greatly cherishes life is therefore likely to fear death, and suffer because of it. The man who seeks only happiness is forever disappointed.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 06 Oct 2023 17:15 collapse

Even experiencing loss and finitude is only possible while alive. In a world of immortals you could still have a break-up or have someone you care about move away and lose touch with them. Taking something for granted is not a guarantee of permanence, with or without death on the picture.

We only think of death in regards to life, but there are plenty of things that are never alive. What does happiness and sadness and living means to a rock? It doesn’t mean anything because it’s not capable of comprehending, much like a skeleton.

Attachment may lead to suffering but survival is ingrained in our nature. We don’t just give in if we have a particularly bad illness, nor do we want the others around us to give up so easily. Our civilization has put great efforts so that we don’t have to be stuck with the lot that we are handed. Maybe it would be more peaceful to give in, but often would rather fight against tragedy. Life wants to live.

I wonder if it we would even have such lofty thoughts about death if it wasn’t for the human propensity to philosophize and ask existential questions.

In a less animalistic sense, I would rather cherish life and fear death, than be impassive to both. Passions add great richness to our lives, even when we struggle because of them. And who knows, every now and then we manage to overcome the tragedies that we could have just given into, maybe one day people’s lives will be much longer and happier because of it.

Apollo@sh.itjust.works on 03 Oct 2023 10:28 collapse

Also to respond to your example - yeah, I reckon seeing civilization repeating the same dumb patterns every hundred years would get boring fast. “Oh, facism is on the rise again, better grab the popcorn”.

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 15:43 collapse

In my country there are people who are still alive who lived during a military dictatorship and I cannot imagine of all things that they would be bored by its resurgence. The ones I hear speaking in the media seem livid if anything.

I could see someone ending their immortal life out of desperation, but boredom? Only if they completely give up on themselves and the world. Even that sounds like a treatable form of depression.

And that’s not even bringing up all the technology and arts that advance every day. In the most mundane sense I could think of several franchises I’m constantly waiting on the next entries, without mentioning all that I haven’t yet tried and ones that haven’t even been invented that I might like.

iHUNTcriminals@lemm.ee on 01 Oct 2023 22:11 next collapse

Shoot me.😑

possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip on 02 Oct 2023 00:16 next collapse

Its a subscription service

gunslingerfry@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 04:05 next collapse

Well I, for one, would like to live for as long as I want. I understand the sentiment here, though a little depressing, is against that concept. I understand people’s reticence toward extending a painful life, particularly if that comes with strings attached. Life extension would need to be paired with a basic income and the rich will need to foot the bill.

I think we can all agree that George R R Martin should be put on this regimen immediately. We’re going to need 16 or more years for this dude to finish the series.

Not_Alec_Baldwin@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 05:50 collapse

I too want to see the completion of George’s masterpiece,

Elden Ring.

Sir_Simon_Spamalot@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 09:36 next collapse

Just because you’d live long enough, doesn’t mean he would

AfricanExpansionist@lemmy.ml on 02 Oct 2023 12:37 collapse

Wild Cards?

kicksystem@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 07:18 next collapse

Pro tip: whole food plant based diet.

Fedizen@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 08:12 next collapse

Meanwhile retirement funding is smaller and smaller. Imagine being retired longer than not

El_illuminacho@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 13:47 collapse

Funding getting smaller, retirement age getting higher. Governments want to milk every working year out of its citizens. Longer, healthier life should benefit the people, not the governments.

Smoogs@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:53 collapse

I think that is capitalism. Capitalism has been trying to shut down government as they would be the facility to have the power to tax the rich. Now if only it could be used appropriately what with all the legal system strangling everything all to reward the rich.

Etterra@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 08:26 next collapse

Shit, I didn’t want to hit 12 much less 120, and now I’m in my 40s. If some jerkass figures out life extension even for the poor, I’m gonna give that a hard pass. Just because I’ve chosen not to kill myself doesn’t mean I have to drag it out one day longer than necessary.

FlyingSquid@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 09:53 next collapse

Must be nice to be rich.

Mandy@sh.itjust.works on 02 Oct 2023 10:05 next collapse

Even longer time to make the rich richer woohoooo!!!

FlyingSquid@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:24 next collapse

Yeah, do we really want Trump to make it to 80, let alone 120?

crypticthree@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:32 collapse

I’m not thrilled with him making it to tomorrow

TwilightVulpine@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 18:42 collapse

Getting Altered Carbon vibes here

Mdotaut801@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 10:36 next collapse

I don’t want to live to 120. Idk how I’m gonna be able to retire at a reasonable age.

Powerpoint@lemmy.ca on 02 Oct 2023 14:06 collapse

They don’t want you to retire. That’s why in many western countries they keep trying to raise the retirement age.

[deleted] on 02 Oct 2023 23:33 collapse

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RobotToaster@mander.xyz on 02 Oct 2023 12:26 next collapse

Man, the replies here really prove how much of a cult deathism really is.

pixeltree@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 12:51 next collapse

I’ve seen both of my grandfathers become shadows of who they were due to alzheimers and I really hope I don’t live long enough for that to happen to me. Fate worse than death, I think that’s reasonable

Pipoca@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 13:34 collapse

Living to 120 would be great if that comes from getting four more decades of what my patents and grandparents were in their 60s and 70s: fine day-to-day, but maybe they needed a scooter to do a full day at Disney closer to the end. Not as young as they used to be, but still basically able to do everything they used to, just maybe a bit slower.

Living to 120 would be terrible if you get an extra 40 years in a memory care unit.

Smoogs@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:50 collapse

Well they are lead to believe that a life of eating Big Macs is a normal diet and dying with diabetes at 70 is absolutely the normal human condition.

AdmiralShat@programming.dev on 02 Oct 2023 13:13 next collapse

Just in time for the world to suck

AphoticDev@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 02 Oct 2023 14:38 next collapse

I see the quality of life people have when they start approaching 100, and lemme tell you I wouldn’t want an extra 20 years of that. Living in the US sucks for healthcare, you’re gonna be miserable if you live that long.

ago@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:44 collapse

And it sucks because usually when your that old you can’t do much besides sit. Sucks that are body’s don’t last long.

Smoogs@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 14:49 collapse

You need to learn more about what a blue zone is.

BloodyFable@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 15:03 collapse

Or you could share this weird esoteric knowledge that other people don’t know about but you do.

Smoogs@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 15:30 next collapse

Well If you’re posting here you have access to internet too.

And that’s as far as I’m willing to help you without a ‘please’ and ‘ thank you’.

bingbong@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 02 Oct 2023 19:18 collapse

Please eat a dick

Thank you😘

Smoogs@lemmy.world on 04 Oct 2023 13:47 collapse

And you can huff farts. 😘

AA5B@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 15:42 next collapse

Obviously he’s talking about hockey, and means blue lines - it’s to help with calling off-sides

RedAggroBest@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 02:44 collapse

So instead of being a prick like the person you’re actually replying to I’ll answer you. Blue zones are areas where the population regularly reaches over 100. The point they’re making is the people over 100 in those areas usually seem to be doing pretty well, moving, some even run, and die suddenly (things just happen to turn downhill very fast when you’re that old, nothing sinister implied)

doktorseven@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 21:14 next collapse

You’re assuming humanity is going to survive the next 30-50 years. Unless we do some major course corrections right the fuck now (and that’s not looking likely at all because most of it has to do with the rich and powerful who will never change), climate change and/or our own hatred of each other is going to make us extinct or at least endangered and very unhealthy.

Sensitivezombie@lemmy.zip on 02 Oct 2023 21:18 next collapse

No thanks. There better be a global acceptance of physician assisted suicide simultaneously.

egeres@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 23:03 next collapse

Putting aside world inequality and the grim future that awaits us for a sec, medical science keeps moving forward… It took us 13 years to even sequence all the human genome (which was a tremendous effort done by many universities and researchers). Predicting the structures of proteins was an immense problem in biology that was finally solved with AI like 2~ years ago. mRNA vaccines were a super theoretical thing many years ago, but served us to fight covid. There’s a growing number of scientists (like david sinclair) that aren’t afraid of openly taking immortality as an academical challenge and publish research without fear of mockery

People forget technological progress is driven by an exponential growth, seeing all the things we have discovered in the past decades I can’t help but be optimistic about treatments or medicines available for the general public that slow down aging

TwoGems@lemmy.world on 02 Oct 2023 23:53 next collapse

So you’re saying to dine on billionaires before that happens? 😏

OrteilGenou@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 01:45 collapse

By then it’ll be quintiillionaires and everyone will be a billionaire

Omega_Jimes@lemmy.ca on 03 Oct 2023 00:03 next collapse

I’m not interested to 70 let alone 120. What a nightmare.

OrteilGenou@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 01:44 collapse

Aw c’mon! Just think, at ninety you could be hiking the Appalachian trail with a Camelbak tactical colostomy bag and a keen sense of wonder

kromem@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 02:56 next collapse

Imaginable as possible? Ok, maybe.

Imaginable as tolerable? Please God no.

FrancisFeliz@lemmy.world on 03 Oct 2023 05:08 collapse

I don’t want to reach 60. Imagine being 120, totally horrible.