I split this evolving situation according to different scenarios and try to weight their relative probability. What’s the motive, where’s the gain?
A) 80% Some variation of pure incompetence where they tried some shit with whatever aim and weren’t prepared for the hard pushback they got served quickly and decisively. Current events are capitulation, at least for a moment.
B) 15% We are in a Russia-like scenario where this administration needs to govern from fear : population fear deportation and can’t elect another government and fear from the companies that he can crash anything at will without remorse : pay regularly to avoid the destruction of your business model. Mafia protection tax will be lucrative for the few people at the very top.
C) 5% Wider destruction of society with genocide and a new flavour of slavery. Luckily this one is difficult and stoping at a mid point, pivoting to B, is easier. Achieving stability in a “network city” scenario doesn’t seems plausible to me : one small example: try to manufacture stuff to give your ruler class quality healthcare without any scale because war killed so much people… modern stuff is outrageously complicated.
How can we price the stock correctly if we don’t know how much of the profit margin needs to be cut to account for bribes? If Apple shouldered the bribe on its own is this a disadvantage when their competitors gets tariff relief for free? Do they pay every 3 months or every year? Maybe we learn the bribe price on the quarterly conference call? Apple has some kind of leverage against the US government and this isn’t an expense?
You can pause the tariffs but you can’t pause the uncertainty you’ve introduced into the system, Don.
TheFeatureCreature@lemmy.ca
on 12 Apr 15:22
collapse
Especially when he has basically admitted that it is stock market manipulation. Everyone knows the tariffs will return or potentially even something stupider.
Based on the CSMS statement elseware in the thread and my limited google-fu, it looks like swicth one was 9504.50, which isn’t on the list of exemptions.
That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Nintendo figured out a few tweaks in the feature list that would allow them to claim it as one of the exempted categories.
Pretty sick of these kinds of doomsdayers rolling over and spreading panic instead of focusing on calling out all the bullshit. Not that that’s even an effective approach. What needs to be repeated over and over is the obvious failures in simple enough terms they can become mantras, slogans, ways of beating the propagandists at their own game. We’re more creative and smarter than them yet we let ourselves lose the propaganda war. Well, not us per se, but legacy media and feckless Democrats.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works
on 12 Apr 17:26
nextcollapse
Building iPhones in the US was never going to happen, it would double or triple the price if we did it here.
It’s not about the price. There just isn’t enough capacity and workers to build that many.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works
on 13 Apr 12:49
collapse
Which is why the price would dramatically go up. Labor is cheap in China because it’s plentiful, labor is expensive here because it’s not. Making iPhones here means diverting labor from other good jobs.
No I mean it wouldn’t be possible to make them here, if you tried to build a series of factories they would not have enough workers. It’s like an order of magnitude scale difference, the largest industrial plant in the US is 30k workers and in China the big one for iPhones is 350k. And that is 350k people working super long hours. Even in China labor isn’t plentiful anymore, there is shortages of labor in the coastal areas. You try to hire a staffing firm and tell them you want 300k skilled workers in a city and they’ll just laugh at you.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works
on 13 Apr 21:43
collapse
If you increase wages high enough, you’ll get the workers. However, that’ll have negative effects for whatever those workers were doing before.
US/Trump blinking continues. If electronics jobs were both desirable and already on a partial progress groove, then surely apparel/toys tariffs are next to be removed, and then only US military electronics will be 145% tariffed, if not blacklisted by China.
Trade deficit with China just substantially increased. US energy, ag, big ticket industrial exports just went to 0.
Trump complains about other nations VAT as a justification for original “reciprocal” tariffs. If US could export any significant manufacturing goods, implementing its own VAT would be a means of taxing consumption while giving exporters a bigger tax break than just manufacturers for domestic consumption.
If everything else deserves exemptions too, a VAT would be the same, and allow funding for more tax cuts for the rich that Trump says will also save America.
Tempus_Fugit@midwest.social
on 12 Apr 16:16
nextcollapse
FauxPseudo@lemmy.world
on 12 Apr 18:15
nextcollapse
Now this loophole will make sure everything is a cell phone or computer. Every toy will suddenly have gps a gig of ram and a touch screen. Micromachines are going to be lit.
I’m not so sure about that. With tarrifs of over 100%, manufacturers can add over a 100% to the cost of production and still come out ahead…
Alternatively they could move production, but that only makes sense to do if it’s cheaper than adding just enough electronics to make the items exempt from tarrifs
“with tariffs…manufacturers can add…come out ahead” - do you imply manufacturers are getting anything? This is not them who rsises the prices, they won’t see the money
desktop_user@lemmy.blahaj.zone
on 13 Apr 12:50
collapse
if they reduce the tariff on their product and charge the same post tariff price they could make more profit even with higher manufacturing costs.
That’s more or less my point.
They won’t come out ahead but at least they won’t have to raise the prices as much so they’ll be more completive compared to manufacturers that don’t include electronics
That won’t work, because building a new factory takes 2-5 years and if the tariffs drop at any point then you’re stuck with a product way more expensive that nobody will buy.
threaded - newest
It’s almost like they don’t know what they’re doing.
Unless it’s just plain old stock market manipulation with a twist. Always follow the money.
Nah. It’s not almost like that. Nope. It’s exactly that.
This is weaponized incompetence and stupidity.
I split this evolving situation according to different scenarios and try to weight their relative probability. What’s the motive, where’s the gain?
A) 80% Some variation of pure incompetence where they tried some shit with whatever aim and weren’t prepared for the hard pushback they got served quickly and decisively. Current events are capitulation, at least for a moment.
B) 15% We are in a Russia-like scenario where this administration needs to govern from fear : population fear deportation and can’t elect another government and fear from the companies that he can crash anything at will without remorse : pay regularly to avoid the destruction of your business model. Mafia protection tax will be lucrative for the few people at the very top.
C) 5% Wider destruction of society with genocide and a new flavour of slavery. Luckily this one is difficult and stoping at a mid point, pivoting to B, is easier. Achieving stability in a “network city” scenario doesn’t seems plausible to me : one small example: try to manufacture stuff to give your ruler class quality healthcare without any scale because war killed so much people… modern stuff is outrageously complicated.
Medical care in Switzerland is an option when you have the money. That is what most dictators do.
Today, sure.
$AAPL stonk go up.
Before Trump announced it publicly. Martha Stewart was jailed for less.
Martha is a woman, so…
Generally convictions are less severe for women though, so that doesn’t explain it…
Getting any sentence at all > no sentence.
also if they reasonably attractive and not ugly, helps too.
That’s actually not gender specific, good looking people generally do better and are judged less harshly, regardless of gender.
How can we price the stock correctly if we don’t know how much of the profit margin needs to be cut to account for bribes? If Apple shouldered the bribe on its own is this a disadvantage when their competitors gets tariff relief for free? Do they pay every 3 months or every year? Maybe we learn the bribe price on the quarterly conference call? Apple has some kind of leverage against the US government and this isn’t an expense?
I have more questions than a three years old!
You can pause the tariffs but you can’t pause the uncertainty you’ve introduced into the system, Don.
Especially when he has basically admitted that it is stock market manipulation. Everyone knows the tariffs will return or potentially even something stupider.
Oh, so the two largest line items among Chinese imports.
Xiaomi/Oppo phones in US for the win.
what about switch 2
That can be considered a computer or phone so sounds like it’s exempt.
Based on the CSMS statement elseware in the thread and my limited google-fu, it looks like swicth one was 9504.50, which isn’t on the list of exemptions.
That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Nintendo figured out a few tweaks in the feature list that would allow them to claim it as one of the exempted categories.
Follow Sony’s play and call it an “OtherOS” mode. You don’t even have to support it once you’re already shipping under the new classification!
tim cook wrote a check to one of trump businesses, quite probably
Somebody got a call from Tim Apple. So much for the clamor to make iPhones in the US. More American jobs vaporized, just like that.
Makes this article look even stupider than when it was first written
<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/4356905b-ed84-40f5-afca-81566b9a0569.jpeg">
Why? People probably panic upgraded.
The Trump tariffs are doing as intended, manipulating the market.
Pretty sick of these kinds of doomsdayers rolling over and spreading panic instead of focusing on calling out all the bullshit. Not that that’s even an effective approach. What needs to be repeated over and over is the obvious failures in simple enough terms they can become mantras, slogans, ways of beating the propagandists at their own game. We’re more creative and smarter than them yet we let ourselves lose the propaganda war. Well, not us per se, but legacy media and feckless Democrats.
Building iPhones in the US was never going to happen, it would double or triple the price if we did it here.
It’s not about the price. There just isn’t enough capacity and workers to build that many.
Which is why the price would dramatically go up. Labor is cheap in China because it’s plentiful, labor is expensive here because it’s not. Making iPhones here means diverting labor from other good jobs.
No I mean it wouldn’t be possible to make them here, if you tried to build a series of factories they would not have enough workers. It’s like an order of magnitude scale difference, the largest industrial plant in the US is 30k workers and in China the big one for iPhones is 350k. And that is 350k people working super long hours. Even in China labor isn’t plentiful anymore, there is shortages of labor in the coastal areas. You try to hire a staffing firm and tell them you want 300k skilled workers in a city and they’ll just laugh at you.
If you increase wages high enough, you’ll get the workers. However, that’ll have negative effects for whatever those workers were doing before.
I don’t think the general populace was particularly interested in buying 5000 dollar US made smartphones lmao
Nope. Just ludicrous propositions to terrorize everyone on the planet.
Lol. Conservatives don’t care. Libs fucking OWNED. We got fucking OWNED, y’all.
Do you feel it? Does it fucking hurt to be owned by poor people who will now be poorer with less options?
They fucking showed us. And themselves. Fuck yeah!!!
Ignorance is strength!!!
US/Trump blinking continues. If electronics jobs were both desirable and already on a partial progress groove, then surely apparel/toys tariffs are next to be removed, and then only US military electronics will be 145% tariffed, if not blacklisted by China.
Trade deficit with China just substantially increased. US energy, ag, big ticket industrial exports just went to 0.
Is switch 2 a computer?
www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20xn626y81o
Holy fuck on solar cells!!! Huge boost for cost of solar outside of China imported to US, or made in US from Chinese cell supplies.
This can significantly accelerate US solar adoption. If Trump manages to lower interest rates, that is biggest payoff gain for solar/battery projects.
edit: China might still be tariffed 20% on these items.
Yes it is just a form of “GST/VAT” on goods imported by Americans into US. It is a tax paid for by Americans.
It is cool way to distract people and collect more taxes. By using the phrase “tariff on china” instead of “raising taxes on Americans”.
Trump complains about other nations VAT as a justification for original “reciprocal” tariffs. If US could export any significant manufacturing goods, implementing its own VAT would be a means of taxing consumption while giving exporters a bigger tax break than just manufacturers for domestic consumption.
If everything else deserves exemptions too, a VAT would be the same, and allow funding for more tax cuts for the rich that Trump says will also save America.
<img alt="" src="https://midwest.social/pictrs/image/fc7d2108-e2a1-4ba0-961b-86b1e1a78b3d.jpeg">
<img alt="" src="https://i.aaronmbushnell.com/helpcomputer.jpg">
Come on China, send a message and slap export duties on them until Trump buckles again.
Just outright embargo the US, period.
I like how you think.
Are they just kind of saying things at this point?
What a pussy. Got a call from Tim Apple and caved immediately.
I feel like the uncertainty is worse for business than the actual tarries at this point
Tim apple sms’d him a single picture.
Course, the picture was the back of his neck in a sniper scope.
Sometimes pictures speak louder than words.
And some pictures transcend language and random rants of gibberish.
The iPhones must flow.
Tim apple got to keep making owner thris profits
Now this loophole will make sure everything is a cell phone or computer. Every toy will suddenly have gps a gig of ram and a touch screen. Micromachines are going to be lit.
No. Even a large tariff on a 3$ piece of plastic that retails for 20-30 won’t be worth adding anything.
I’m not so sure about that. With tarrifs of over 100%, manufacturers can add over a 100% to the cost of production and still come out ahead… Alternatively they could move production, but that only makes sense to do if it’s cheaper than adding just enough electronics to make the items exempt from tarrifs
“with tariffs…manufacturers can add…come out ahead” - do you imply manufacturers are getting anything? This is not them who rsises the prices, they won’t see the money
if they reduce the tariff on their product and charge the same post tariff price they could make more profit even with higher manufacturing costs.
That’s more or less my point. They won’t come out ahead but at least they won’t have to raise the prices as much so they’ll be more completive compared to manufacturers that don’t include electronics
That won’t work, because building a new factory takes 2-5 years and if the tariffs drop at any point then you’re stuck with a product way more expensive that nobody will buy.
They? They like “manufacturers”? They can’t reduce tariffs, the tariffs exist against them, it’s only the orange who introduced them can reduce them.
Even potato chips will identify as micro chips.
ZeroCool flavored Doritos.
If electronics fall out of favor, it will be harder to profile and track us
Folding like a cheap suit after making duuuuumbfuck decisions.
A true American hero.
The conservative savior.
A cult.
It’s a cult.
At least he made all his billionaire backers a lot of extra money from all of this.
And somehow american gagging only made the Chinese dick grow in its mouth.
Art of the fellatio.
after all his cronies got on TV talking about making iphones in the US … fucking lol.
I’m starting to think this Trump guy doesn’t know what he’s doing. /s
he has to poke all of these holes in his threats, and this tells me he’s not bluffing. the end goal is not negotiation, but a huge tariff wall.
I no longer have a retirement plan
You mean Americans are spared from tax on smartphones and computers.
you dont want to keep your propaganda spreading technologies unaffordable
Does anyone know what reciprocal means?
Just checking.
It means China bad America good.
Donald Trump had the right to defend himself and history started whenever China put counter tariffs on America.
Not any more!! you cannot trust a word that comes out of the shit gibbons mouth hole.